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Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015

Identifieur interne : 000C98 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000C97; suivant : 000C99

Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015

Auteurs : Aaron J. Cohen [États-Unis] ; Michael Brauer [Canada] ; Richard Burnett [Canada] ; H Ross Anderson [Royaume-Uni] ; Joseph Frostad [États-Unis] ; Kara Estep [États-Unis] ; Kalpana Balakrishnan [Inde] ; Bert Brunekreef [Pays-Bas] ; Lalit Dandona [États-Unis, Inde] ; Rakhi Dandona [Inde] ; Valery Feigin [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; Greg Freedman [États-Unis] ; Bryan Hubbell [États-Unis] ; Amelia Jobling [Royaume-Uni] ; Haidong Kan [République populaire de Chine] ; Luke Knibbs [Australie] ; Yang Liu [États-Unis] ; Randall Martin [Canada] ; Lidia Morawska [Australie] ; C Arden Pope [États-Unis] ; Hwashin Shin [Canada] ; Kurt Straif [France] ; Gavin Shaddick [Royaume-Uni] ; Matthew Thomas [Royaume-Uni] ; Rita Van Dingenen [Belgique] ; Aaron Van Donkelaar [Canada] ; Theo Vos [États-Unis] ; Christopher J L. Murray [États-Unis] ; Mohammad H. Forouzanfar [États-Unis]

Source :

RBID : PMC:5439030

Abstract

SummaryBackground

Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels.

Methods

We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure–response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure–response functions spanning the global range of exposure.

Findings

Ambient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000–422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015.

Interpretation

Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will occur in the most polluted countries unless PM2·5 values are decreased substantially, but there is potential for substantial health benefits from exposure reduction.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Health Effects Institute.


Url:
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30505-6
PubMed: 28408086
PubMed Central: 5439030


Affiliations:


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<nlm:aff id="aff5">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Balakrishnan, Kalpana" sort="Balakrishnan, Kalpana" uniqKey="Balakrishnan K" first="Kalpana" last="Balakrishnan">Kalpana Balakrishnan</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff6">Sri Ramachandra University, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Sri Ramachandra University, Chennai, Tamil Nadu</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Tamil Nadu</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Brunekreef, Bert" sort="Brunekreef, Bert" uniqKey="Brunekreef B" first="Bert" last="Brunekreef">Bert Brunekreef</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3">
<nlm:aff id="aff7">University of Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country>
<wicri:regionArea>University of Utrecht, Utrecht</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Utrecht</settlement>
<region nuts="2" type="province">Utrecht (province)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Dandona, Lalit" sort="Dandona, Lalit" uniqKey="Dandona L" first="Lalit" last="Dandona">Lalit Dandona</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="aff5">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff8">Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>New Delhi</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Dandona, Rakhi" sort="Dandona, Rakhi" uniqKey="Dandona R" first="Rakhi" last="Dandona">Rakhi Dandona</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff8">Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>New Delhi</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Feigin, Valery" sort="Feigin, Valery" uniqKey="Feigin V" first="Valery" last="Feigin">Valery Feigin</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff9">Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Auckland University of Technology, Auckland</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Auckland</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Freedman, Greg" sort="Freedman, Greg" uniqKey="Freedman G" first="Greg" last="Freedman">Greg Freedman</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="aff5">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Hubbell, Bryan" sort="Hubbell, Bryan" uniqKey="Hubbell B" first="Bryan" last="Hubbell">Bryan Hubbell</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="aff10">United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">District de Columbia</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Jobling, Amelia" sort="Jobling, Amelia" uniqKey="Jobling A" first="Amelia" last="Jobling">Amelia Jobling</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff11">University of Bath, Bath, UK</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>University of Bath, Bath</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Bath</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Kan, Haidong" sort="Kan, Haidong" uniqKey="Kan H" first="Haidong" last="Kan">Haidong Kan</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff12">Fudan University, Yangpu Qu, Shanghai, China</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Fudan University, Yangpu Qu, Shanghai</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Shanghai</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Knibbs, Luke" sort="Knibbs, Luke" uniqKey="Knibbs L" first="Luke" last="Knibbs">Luke Knibbs</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff13">University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, Australia</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>QLD</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Liu, Yang" sort="Liu, Yang" uniqKey="Liu Y" first="Yang" last="Liu">Yang Liu</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="aff14">Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Emory University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Martin, Randall" sort="Martin, Randall" uniqKey="Martin R" first="Randall" last="Martin">Randall Martin</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff15">Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>NS</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Morawska, Lidia" sort="Morawska, Lidia" uniqKey="Morawska L" first="Lidia" last="Morawska">Lidia Morawska</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff16">Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>QLD</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Pope, C Arden" sort="Pope, C Arden" uniqKey="Pope C" first="C Arden" last="Pope">C Arden Pope</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="aff17">Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Brigham Young University, Provo, UT</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Utah</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Shin, Hwashin" sort="Shin, Hwashin" uniqKey="Shin H" first="Hwashin" last="Shin">Hwashin Shin</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff3">Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Health Canada, Ottawa, ON</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>ON</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Straif, Kurt" sort="Straif, Kurt" uniqKey="Straif K" first="Kurt" last="Straif">Kurt Straif</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3">
<nlm:aff id="aff18">International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea>International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="region">Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</region>
<region type="old region">Rhône-Alpes</region>
<settlement type="city">Lyon</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Shaddick, Gavin" sort="Shaddick, Gavin" uniqKey="Shaddick G" first="Gavin" last="Shaddick">Gavin Shaddick</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff11">University of Bath, Bath, UK</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>University of Bath, Bath</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Bath</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Thomas, Matthew" sort="Thomas, Matthew" uniqKey="Thomas M" first="Matthew" last="Thomas">Matthew Thomas</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff11">University of Bath, Bath, UK</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>University of Bath, Bath</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Bath</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Van Dingenen, Rita" sort="Van Dingenen, Rita" uniqKey="Van Dingenen R" first="Rita" last="Van Dingenen">Rita Van Dingenen</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3">
<nlm:aff id="aff19">European Commission, Brussels, Belgium</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Belgique</country>
<wicri:regionArea>European Commission, Brussels</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Bruxelles</settlement>
<region nuts="2">Région de Bruxelles-Capitale</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Van Donkelaar, Aaron" sort="Van Donkelaar, Aaron" uniqKey="Van Donkelaar A" first="Aaron" last="Van Donkelaar">Aaron Van Donkelaar</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff15">Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>NS</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Vos, Theo" sort="Vos, Theo" uniqKey="Vos T" first="Theo" last="Vos">Theo Vos</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="aff5">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Murray, Christopher J L" sort="Murray, Christopher J L" uniqKey="Murray C" first="Christopher J L" last="Murray">Christopher J L. Murray</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="aff5">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Forouzanfar, Mohammad H" sort="Forouzanfar, Mohammad H" uniqKey="Forouzanfar M" first="Mohammad H" last="Forouzanfar">Mohammad H. Forouzanfar</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:aff id="aff5">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series>
<title level="j">Lancet (London, England)</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0140-6736</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1474-547X</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2017">2017</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc>
<textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<title>Summary</title>
<sec>
<title>Background</title>
<p>Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels.</p>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Methods</title>
<p>We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM
<sub>2·5</sub>
) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure–response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure–response functions spanning the global range of exposure.</p>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Findings</title>
<p>Ambient PM
<sub>2·5</sub>
was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM
<sub>2·5</sub>
caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM
<sub>2·5</sub>
increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000–422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015.</p>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Interpretation</title>
<p>Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will occur in the most polluted countries unless PM
<sub>2·5</sub>
values are decreased substantially, but there is potential for substantial health benefits from exposure reduction.</p>
</sec>
<sec>
<title>Funding</title>
<p>Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Health Effects Institute.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
<back>
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</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Kan, H" uniqKey="Kan H">H Kan</name>
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<name sortKey="Butland, Bk" uniqKey="Butland B">BK Butland</name>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Dimitroulopoulou, C" uniqKey="Dimitroulopoulou C">C Dimitroulopoulou</name>
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<name sortKey="Pope, Ca" uniqKey="Pope C">CA Pope</name>
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<name sortKey="Cohen, Aj" uniqKey="Cohen A">AJ Cohen</name>
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<name sortKey="Wang, Y" uniqKey="Wang Y">Y Wang</name>
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<country>
<li>Australie</li>
<li>Belgique</li>
<li>Canada</li>
<li>France</li>
<li>Inde</li>
<li>Nouvelle-Zélande</li>
<li>Pays-Bas</li>
<li>Royaume-Uni</li>
<li>République populaire de Chine</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
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<li>Angleterre</li>
<li>Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</li>
<li>District de Columbia</li>
<li>Grand Londres</li>
<li>Géorgie (États-Unis)</li>
<li>Massachusetts</li>
<li>Rhône-Alpes</li>
<li>Région de Bruxelles-Capitale</li>
<li>Utah</li>
<li>Utrecht (province)</li>
<li>Washington (État)</li>
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<name sortKey="Frostad, Joseph" sort="Frostad, Joseph" uniqKey="Frostad J" first="Joseph" last="Frostad">Joseph Frostad</name>
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<name sortKey="Liu, Yang" sort="Liu, Yang" uniqKey="Liu Y" first="Yang" last="Liu">Yang Liu</name>
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<name sortKey="Vos, Theo" sort="Vos, Theo" uniqKey="Vos T" first="Theo" last="Vos">Theo Vos</name>
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<name sortKey="Van Donkelaar, Aaron" sort="Van Donkelaar, Aaron" uniqKey="Van Donkelaar A" first="Aaron" last="Van Donkelaar">Aaron Van Donkelaar</name>
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<name sortKey="Anderson, H Ross" sort="Anderson, H Ross" uniqKey="Anderson H" first="H Ross" last="Anderson">H Ross Anderson</name>
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<name sortKey="Shaddick, Gavin" sort="Shaddick, Gavin" uniqKey="Shaddick G" first="Gavin" last="Shaddick">Gavin Shaddick</name>
<name sortKey="Thomas, Matthew" sort="Thomas, Matthew" uniqKey="Thomas M" first="Matthew" last="Thomas">Matthew Thomas</name>
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<name sortKey="Balakrishnan, Kalpana" sort="Balakrishnan, Kalpana" uniqKey="Balakrishnan K" first="Kalpana" last="Balakrishnan">Kalpana Balakrishnan</name>
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<name sortKey="Brunekreef, Bert" sort="Brunekreef, Bert" uniqKey="Brunekreef B" first="Bert" last="Brunekreef">Bert Brunekreef</name>
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<name sortKey="Kan, Haidong" sort="Kan, Haidong" uniqKey="Kan H" first="Haidong" last="Kan">Haidong Kan</name>
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<name sortKey="Morawska, Lidia" sort="Morawska, Lidia" uniqKey="Morawska L" first="Lidia" last="Morawska">Lidia Morawska</name>
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<country name="France">
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<name sortKey="Straif, Kurt" sort="Straif, Kurt" uniqKey="Straif K" first="Kurt" last="Straif">Kurt Straif</name>
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<country name="Belgique">
<region name="Région de Bruxelles-Capitale">
<name sortKey="Van Dingenen, Rita" sort="Van Dingenen, Rita" uniqKey="Van Dingenen R" first="Rita" last="Van Dingenen">Rita Van Dingenen</name>
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</record>

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